Inflation data released the Fed's interest rate cut in December, but it lit up a yellow light for next year. The latest inflation data may make the Fed more cautious about the pace of interest rate cut, but not now. The latest report shows that inflation in the United States in November was in line with expectations, so investors still generally expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week. However, stubborn price pressure also confirms the concern that the progress towards the Fed's 2% target may stagnate. This concern may prompt officials to be more restrained in predicting the number of interest rate cuts in 2025, while waiting for more evidence that inflation will steadily reach the target. Fed policymakers will release new forecasts and interest rate outlook at the end of the policy meeting in Washington on December 17-18. "I think they can safely cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December. The market is ready for this, "said Loretta Mester, former president of Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank. "However, they must reconsider next year, because now it seems that the progress of inflation has really stagnated."Peter Orsag, CEO of Lazard Financial Advisor, said that we should be encouraged by the key figures appointed by the president.It's a mystery to say "no" to the influx of large amounts of funds, and the public offering products are setting off a wave of "restricted purchases". Whether it is an active equity fund, a debt-based fund or QDII fund, many outstanding products have recently announced the suspension of large-scale subscription, and even some funds have chosen to directly adjust the subscription threshold to 0 yuan and suspend all subscription operations. Some insiders said that there is another mystery for fund companies to suspend large-scale subscriptions. As the end of the year approaches, the market gradually enters the stage of differentiation. At this time, the purchase restriction is likely to come from the consideration that the fund manager hopes that the capital side will be more stable. (CSI)
Citigroup raised the carnival target price from $28.00 to $30.00.According to Politico, Time magazine will select President-elect Trump as the man of the year.Russian Foreign Ministry: The transfer of US$ 20 billion to Ukraine by the United States on the grounds of freezing Russian assets is "simply robbery".
FBI Director Wray will resign before Trump takes office, ending his term ahead of schedule. Christopher Wray, director of the US Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), announced that he will resign before President-elect Trump takes office (sworn in on January 20, 2025), ending his historic and turbulent term as the head of the highest law enforcement agency in the United States ahead of schedule. Wray said in a statement that he plans to resign at the end of Biden's presidency next month. Trump, who will take office on January 20, made it clear that he will not be allowed to continue as the director of the FBI, although Wray's 10-year term will not end until 2027. Trump posted on Truth Social on November 30th that he planned to nominate loyal ally Kash Patel as the director of the FBI.Dollar deposits and wealth management are popular again. Experts suggest paying attention to exchange risk. Although it is in the cycle of interest rate reduction by the Federal Reserve, dollar deposit products are still attractive to investors. Since December, a number of bank wealth management subsidiaries have intensively put on shelves US dollar wealth management products. Judging from the rate of return, the performance benchmark of some US dollar fixed-income wealth management products currently launched is close to 5%, but the performance benchmark of RMB wealth management products with the same risk level is mostly around 2%. According to the statistics of Puyi standard data, as of December 9, there were 1,312 surviving products in US dollar financing, and the surviving scale of US dollar financing reached 281.927 billion yuan, which has doubled from the surviving scale of 140.351 billion yuan at the end of December last year. In addition, although banks have previously lowered the interest rate of dollar deposit products, from the current point of view, the interest rate of some banks' dollar deposits remains above 4%, attracting many customers to buy. According to industry insiders, under the Fed's interest rate cut cycle, the main reason for the high heat of dollar wealth management and dollar deposits is the exchange rate expectation of a strong dollar. If the market expects the US dollar to appreciate or remain stable, holding US dollar assets (such as US dollar wealth management and US dollar deposits) can benefit from the potential exchange rate appreciation even if interest rates fall. In addition, in order to diversify risks, some investors choose to allocate part of their funds to US dollar assets to realize diversification of asset allocation. (Securities Daily)The US government budget in November was-367 billion US dollars, with an expected-353 billion US dollars and a previous value of-257.5 billion US dollars.
Strategy guide
Strategy guide 12-13